Research Briefing | Nov 12, 2021

United States Recovery Tracker surpasses its pre-Covid level

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The US Recovery Tracker has topped its pre-pandemic level, rising 0.8ppts to 100.9, in the week ended Oct. 29. Four of the tracker’s six dimensions rose, confirming a stronger recovery after the Delta and supply chain-induced slowdown in Q3. All but seven US states registered higher readings. Except for Michigan, the most populated states all strengthened, with Texas at the forefront of the gains. The Southwest and Mountain states gained the most ground, followed closely by states bordering the Pacific.
What you will learn:

  • The US Recovery Tracker surpassed its pre-pandemic baseline for the first time in 20 months.
  • While the pandemic remains a risk and supply disruptions will continue dragging on economic activity, the tracker is poised to move steadily higher in the coming weeks.
  • Employment reached a new pandemic high (+3.1ppts to 107.5) on a drop in searches for unemployment insurance and greater job postings.
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