US Recovery Tracker climbs within reach of pre-Covid level
The US Recovery Tracker rose an impressive 1.5ppts to 99.3 in the week ended October 15, its highest level since February 2020. All six dimensions recorded stronger readings, confirming the economy is warming up in Q4 amid sustained improvement in the health situation.
What you will learn:
- Financial conditions supported the economic expansion, mobility reached its strongest levels of the recovery, and production rose to a five-month high.
- Employment and health firmed, while demand improved modestly.
- Regional recoveries were mixed, with about half of US states notching higher readings. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and California strengthened, and the other largest states mostly held their ground despite a New York slip.
- Covid cases are down 34% since early October and 57% since the start of September. With nearly 60% of the population now fully vaccinated, improving health conditions will drive a stronger 4% real GDP advance in Q4 after a weak 2% gain in Q3. Still, lingering supply chain disruptions and sticky inflation will continue to weigh on demand as we head into 2022.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Why an ageing population doesn’t mean soaring inflation
What’s the future for inflation? Joachim Nagel, the new president of Germany's central bank, believes the rapidly ageing global population will play a key role – ramping up pressure on prices in the medium term. While we agree slowing labour supply will stifle output growth, in his recent discussion Nagel failed to fully consider the demand side of the argument.
Find Out More
Post
Surging global food prices could drive eurozone core inflation higher
Along with energy prices, global food prices have emerged as a key driver of the eurozone's current inflationary surge. Like other advanced economies, eurozone countries tend to be less exposed to global food price fluctuations. But if persistent and combined with strong demand, high food prices could result in a higher pass-through to core inflation.
Find Out More