Research Briefing | Nov 1, 2021

US Recovery Tracker climbs within reach of pre-Covid level

Tracker climbs within reach of pre-Covid level

The US Recovery Tracker rose an impressive 1.5ppts to 99.3 in the week ended October 15, its highest level since February 2020. All six dimensions recorded stronger readings, confirming the economy is warming up in Q4 amid sustained improvement in the health situation.

What you will learn:

  • Financial conditions supported the economic expansion, mobility reached its strongest levels of the recovery, and production rose to a five-month high.
  • Employment and health firmed, while demand improved modestly.
  • Regional recoveries were mixed, with about half of US states notching higher readings. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and California strengthened, and the other largest states mostly held their ground despite a New York slip. 
  • Covid cases are down 34% since early October and 57% since the start of September. With nearly 60% of the population now fully vaccinated, improving health conditions will drive a stronger 4% real GDP advance in Q4 after a weak 2% gain in Q3. Still, lingering supply chain disruptions and sticky inflation will continue to weigh on demand as we head into 2022.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Big shifts are underway in Russia-China trade

Data for Q3 on the volume of China's imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China's demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.

Find Out More

Post

Levelling up is unlikely under the Liz Truss government

The government's levelling up ambition has probably been made more, not less, difficult by the new "Plan for Growth". Policies of lower taxes, less regulation, and a smaller state are unlikely to have much beneficial impact on long-term growth at the national level, let alone in those regions with long track records of underperformance.

Find Out More