Research Briefing | May 13, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker rounded out April on a positive note

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The US Recovery Tracker rose 0.2ppts to 91.1 in the week ending April 30, recouping its losses from the week prior with three of the six subcomponents advancing. The tracker rose 2.7ppts in April, following a 6.7ppts gain in March. Improving health conditions drove the weekly advance with fewer new Covid infections and greater vaccinations. Mobility continued to rise gently, led by more flights and commuting. Employment posted another gain on increased small business employment and job postings, and fewer layoffs.

What you will learn from this report:

  • Demand held steady as more restaurant outings and higher retail and recreation spending was offset by weaker credit card outlays and reduced mortgage activity
  • Regional recoveries firmed, with 38 states recording higher readings. All regions reported stronger conditions during the last week of April as the Midwest caught up to the Southwest & Mountains – both leading the recovery
  • Generous fiscal stimulus and significant improvements in health conditions should support real GDP growth of 7.7% in 2021, the fastest rate since 1951
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