US-Iran conflict: Were we only in the eye of the storm?

The apparent end to the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran could mark the beginning of a renewed run-up in oil prices, but we think it’s too soon to conclude that it’s the most likely scenario, as it’s probable the ceasefire continues to be on and off.

What you will learn:

• The deep distrust between the US and Iran meant bumps in the road were inevitable and this feels eerily similar to the trade negotiations between the US and China during President Donald Trump’s first term, which had numerous flare-ups followed by de-escalation.
• Given this, it was always going to be hard to have strong conviction about reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the path for oil prices in the baseline forecast, leaving risks weighted to the upside in the near term.
• The latest developments probably increase the risk of a scenario akin to our sustained disruption and intensifying war scenarios, but they haven’t yet provided grounds for major wholesale adjustments to our baseline forecast.

Download the report for more detailed insights.