UK | Why the pandemic scars won’t run so deep
We now expect the scarring effect from the pandemic on the supply-side of the UK’s economy to be much more limited – a 1% permanent cut to GDP compared to our original estimate of 2.6%. But we still forecast UK GDP growth will average a relatively modest 1.4% a year through the 2020s.
What you will learn:
- The resilience of the labour market is key to our estimate of more limited scarring.
- We think unemployment may have peaked already at a little more than 1ppt above its pre-pandemic level, limiting hysteresis effects, while recent ONS data suggests there has not been a mass exodus of foreign-born workers.
- We think the UK’s large negative output gap will persist for some time, so the risk of a rapid recovery triggering a sustained rise in inflation is low. We also think the repair job for the public finances is smaller than the OBR estimates.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.
Find Out More
Post
China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods
We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).
Find Out More