Research Briefing

UK | The recovery rolls on

The UK economy rolls on

May’s PMIs delivered a set of record, or near-record, high readings. While
activity may not be quite as heated as the surveys suggest, all the economy’s
major sectors look to be enjoying strong rebounds.
A slowdown in some high-frequency retail measures in May was likely weather-related. And that households continued to pay down debt in April was probably just a blip, rather than signalling any cooling in consumers’ appetite to spend.


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  • May’s flash PMIs had indicated a positively booming performance from the services and manufacturing sectors
  • The latest PMIs are consistent with our above-consensus forecast for GDP growth
  • We would be equally wary about reading too much into a subdued performance from consumer credit in April
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