UK | The recovery rolls on
May’s PMIs delivered a set of record, or near-record, high readings. While
activity may not be quite as heated as the surveys suggest, all the economy’s
major sectors look to be enjoying strong rebounds.
A slowdown in some high-frequency retail measures in May was likely weather-related. And that households continued to pay down debt in April was probably just a blip, rather than signalling any cooling in consumers’ appetite to spend.
Download this report to learn about:
- May’s flash PMIs had indicated a positively booming performance from the services and manufacturing sectors
- The latest PMIs are consistent with our above-consensus forecast for GDP growth
- We would be equally wary about reading too much into a subdued performance from consumer credit in April
consumer credit in April.
Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.Find Out More
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.Find Out More