UK | The economy reveals a resilient base for recovery
While the economy shrunk in Q1, the fall was smaller than feared. And the quarter ended with evidence of activity building momentum even before a meaningful relaxation of Covid restrictions began.
The latest high-frequency measures reaffirmed the message of such indicators since mid-April that GDP is on course for a strong rebound in Q2, aided by the final stages of the roadmap for reopening the economy staying on track.
What you will learn in this comprehensive 4 page report:
- A rise in GDP in March narrowed the shortfall with the pre-pandemic level of output to just under 6ppts
- Spending on credit and debit cards in early May was 6% above pre-pandemic levels
- Some indicators suggest pent-up consumer demand may be stabilising
Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.Find Out More
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.Find Out More