Research Briefing | May 19, 2021

India | How the 2021 lockdown is different from 2020

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As we feared, the second coronavirus wave is playing havoc with India’s health system and more states have adopted stricter measures to contain the surge in recent weeks. The proportion of states and union territories in lockdown has increased, accounting for more than 65% of national GDP in May from around 22% in April. Including partial lockdowns, we estimate that nearly 80% of the economy is now subject to substantially tighter Covid restrictions compared to March.

What you will learn from this report:

  • An increasing number of Indian states have imposed stricter lockdowns since late April, likely encouraged by the success in containing the pandemic of those that imposed restrictions early.
  • The current situation looks similar to the 2020 national lockdown, but some key differences, such as fewer restrictions on manufacturing, retail and even transport, mean the 2021 measures are less stringent.
  •  This is likely to buffer the peak impact of the pandemic on the economy. However, we expect restrictions will be extended well beyond the end of this month, prolonging the economic impact and hampering the H2 recovery. 
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