Research Briefing | Nov 12, 2021

UK | Latest GDP numbers offered a curate’s egg

UK | Latest GDP numbers offered a curate’s egg

The latest GDP numbers were a mixed bag. Growth accelerated to a three-month high in September, but this was almost wholly due to higher health output. And past revisions revealed a softer than expected performance in Q3. Burgeoning cost of living pressures will weigh on activity over the rest of this year and into 2022. That said, recent high-frequency data and retail surveys suggest that consumers’ appetite to spend has not run out of steam yet.
What you will learn:

  • September’s gain left the economy 0.6% shy of its immediate pre-COVID size in February 2020, the smallest gap since the pandemic began.
  • GDP growth in September was heavily dependent on the health sector, where activity was boosted by a big increase in face-to-face appointments at GP surgeries and a surge in Covid testing.
  • But with the easy gains from reopening the economy exhausted and policy support being withdrawn, the recovery has entered a much tougher phase.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Seoul, South Korea

Post

BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends

Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.

Find Out More

Post

China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods

We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).

Find Out More