UK | Freedom day to bolster recovery, but Covid rates a worry
The government’s announcement that most of the remaining Covid restrictions are likely to be removed on July 19 has bolstered our confidence in the strength of the UK’s recovery. We expect UK GDP to grow nearly 8% this year.
The link between Covid cases and hospitalisations appears to have weakened significantly. But with case numbers rising sharply and new variants still a potential threat, the UK cannot be complacent.
What you will learn:
- Our above-consensus GDP growth forecast
- Covid cases have risen sharply over the past month, but hospitalisations have remained low
- The emergence of the more transmissible Delta variant has caused Covid cases to rise sharply over the past month
BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.Find Out More
China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods
We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).Find Out More