Research Briefing | May 28, 2021

UK | Fiscal repair job is probably smaller than feared

Ipad Frame (4)-Jun-02-2021-02-56-14-94-PM

Though the budget deficit remains very high, monthly borrowing totals have
consistently undershot the OBR’s forecasts. We expect this to continue through the remainder of fiscal year 2021-2022, as the recovery proves much faster than the OBR anticipates, boosting tax receipts and lowering government spending.


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:

  • Borrowing continues to undershoot the OBR’s expectations
  • The reopening of indoor hospitality caused restaurant bookings to rise well above pre-pandemic levels
  • The extent of pandemic-related scarring looks likely to be lower than previously feared…
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