UK | Activity continues to firm ahead of the big reopening
With the government confirming that non-essential retailers and outdoor hospitality will reopen in England on Monday, our forecast of a strong rebound in activity in Q2 looks to be in good shape. Our new forecast shows GDP growth of 7.2% in 2021, well above the consensus of less than 5%. Even before restrictions are relaxed, a broad range of data suggests that activity has firmed.
What you will learn about:
- The PMIs have had a patchy record of predicting changes in GDP during the pandemic.
- Higher new car registrations and stronger high frequency data added to evidence of firming activity.
- We expect GDP to fall by 2% in Q1, but the risks are skewed towards a smaller fall.
Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news
Growth in most LatAm economies will be below consensus. Economic momentum has surprised to the upside through most of 2023, but the full effects of record global and domestic monetary tightening are yet to be seen.Find Out More
Easing financial conditions offer CRE some respite
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and the UK, reflecting investors' expectations that interest rates have peaked. This should aid the outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) on the margins, although the scale of past rate hikes, sluggish economies, and structural headwinds mean the sector still confronts challenging fundamentals.Find Out More