Australia | The terms of trade are booming, but this time it’s different
Export prices have surged over the past 9 months, driven by record high iron ore prices. This has driven the terms of trade to its highest level since 2011– the height of the mining investment boom. But this terms of trade episode will be very different, and it will not have far-reaching consequences for the structure of the economy as the last boom did.
Download this comprehensive 3-page report to learn:
- The current iron ore price cycle is expected to be transitory, and it will not trigger a large investment response. Indeed, the terms of trade are expected to fall back over the second half of this year.
- The investment response will be more modest than the last terms of trade boom.
- We expect the AUD will depreciate to $US0.75 by the end of 2021, and trade around that level for 18 months before appreciating alongside monetary tightening in Australia.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Most US metros to see slower growth in 2024
Most metros have had steady GDP and job growth in 2023 but will start to see quarterly declines in Q4 or Q1 2024. All of the top 50 metros are forecast to see a slowdown in GDP growth in 2024, driven by lower finance and real estate GDP more than by other sectors.
Find Out More
Post
Why the real yield on private wealth will keep falling globally
Despite the importance of returns on private wealth for long-term investors – be they households, asset managers, or pension funds – the fact that real yields have been on a downward trend across the world for decades seems to have escaped attention.
Find Out More