Australia | The terms of trade are booming, but this time it’s different
Export prices have surged over the past 9 months, driven by record high iron ore prices. This has driven the terms of trade to its highest level since 2011– the height of the mining investment boom. But this terms of trade episode will be very different, and it will not have far-reaching consequences for the structure of the economy as the last boom did.
Download this comprehensive 3-page report to learn:
- The current iron ore price cycle is expected to be transitory, and it will not trigger a large investment response. Indeed, the terms of trade are expected to fall back over the second half of this year.
- The investment response will be more modest than the last terms of trade boom.
- We expect the AUD will depreciate to $US0.75 by the end of 2021, and trade around that level for 18 months before appreciating alongside monetary tightening in Australia.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
UK : The everyday economy matters to local economic performance
The everyday economy generates half of all UK employment and 33% of GVA but is often dismissed because it generates less growth than high value services and has low productivity. But indirectly it has the capacity to improve the competitiveness and performance of local economies and has been identified by Labour Party leaders as a sector to focus on, if they win the election.
Find Out More
Post
Amid disruption, what can US office learn from retail?
We examined the disruption of generative AI at the US county level. We identified several metros – Atlanta, Denver, New York, San Francisco, and Washington DC – that had at least one county with the highest percent of displaced workers from AI.
Find Out More