Tariffs dent Europe’s CRE forecasts – industrial hit hardest

We have trimmed our European all-property capital growth forecast by 50bps to 1.5% pa over 2025-2026. While all real estate sectors are likely to face some form of risk associated with demand-side pressures and weaker confidence, we believe industrial property markets will be hit hardest, with retail markets also feeling the pinch.

What you will learn:

• The European industrial property sector is set to be hit hardest as goods trade slows. As countries export less to the US, they will almost certainly also import less from other trading partners creating a negative chain reaction. We expect industrial markets in Central and Eastern Europe, Germany, and other small open economies, such as the Netherlands and the Nordics, to be most affected.
• The office and residential sectors look to be relative ‘winners’. We see less downside from the tariffs for capital growth in these sectors unless there is a large shock to unemployment or services trade becomes part of the retaliation measures.
• Residential is now our strongest growing sector by forecast capital value over the next two years.

Download the report to learn more.