Research Briefing
The net immigration into the US has slowed more abruptly than anticipated in the early days of Trump's second presidency....
Trump presidency
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Research Briefing
President Trump's recent tariff announcements, and the global response, have meant a fast-changing policy landscape with significant effects on our...
The implementation of the US “Liberation Day” tariff hikes will have a significant impact on individual sectors and firms, even...
On 2 April 2025, the US Administration announced a set of tariff increases, bringing the US back to levels of...
Research Briefing
Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is a symbolic step back from global climate cooperation. However, we don't think...
Research Briefing
US President Donald Trump's announcement of an additional 10% tariff on imports from China was in line with our baseline expectation. But the immediacy of implementation, the blanket style of tariffs, and the inclusion...
The major policy proposals planned for the second Trump administration will have mixed implications for the US economy in 2025...
Elections have consequences, and inaugurating a new president means policy change will soon follow.
Research Briefing
The creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), along with the incoming Treasury secretary's goal of halving the deficit...
Research Briefing
The risks around the forecast for federal government employment are skewed to the downside because of the limited scope for...
Research Briefing
Trump's first term was marked by policies and pronouncements that strained international relations, including trade tariffs and a travel ban...
Research Briefing
The incoming Trump administration’s trade policies will have significant impacts on China’s sectoral outlook. There will be a small near-term...
Research Briefing
US tariffs under a Trump presidency and a Republican-led Congress are a major concern for China. However, we expect additional...
Research Briefing
In response to the results of the US election we've adopted our 'limited Trump' scenario as our baseline view for...
Research Briefing
Using our Global Industry Model, we have modelled the sectoral impacts of two scenarios in which former President Donald Trump returns to the...
Research Briefing
A second Trump presidency could have a moderate impact on European growth based on our simulation of his proposed policies....
