A 10% blanket tariff rising to 25% in June, coupled with tit-for-tat retaliation, would cause EU manufacturing value-added output to...
Trade war
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Research Briefing
With US tariff threats escalating over Greenland and Europe weighing retaliation, could this standoff trigger a broader trade war and...
Executive Summary
This quarter’s scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to trade protectionism and other geopolitical tensions,...
Research Briefing
The US has seen short-term gains from higher tariffs, with markets steady and growth holding up. But investment weakness, rising...
Research Briefing
We don't plan material changes to our Eurozone baseline forecast of 1.1% GDP growth this year and 0.8% in 2026...
Research Briefing
Tariffs are rising and USMCA protections are slipping away, leaving machinery and US automotive sectors exposed. Here's why these industries...
Research Briefing
Uncertainty’s adverse impact on investment takes time to materialise, but our leading indicator of investment orders shows it is coming.
Research Briefing
Cotton prices are forecast to remain weak in 2024 due to strong global supply and sluggish demand, weighed down by...
Research Briefing
The EU plans a narrower, targeted response to US tariffs on goods, but stronger measures may follow amid rising trade...
Research Briefing
If the threatened tariffs on imports from the European Union and smartphones were to be implemented, it would reduce US'...
Research Briefing
The economic costs of the 50% tariffs to the Eurozone could amount to 0.3%–1.0% of the Eurozone’s GDP by the...
Research Briefing
We expect the peak economic drag for China from the exogenous demand shock generated by higher tariffs to occur in...
Research Briefing
GDP growth likely to be revised up but will remain weaker than assumed prior to Liberation Day.
Research Briefing
The latest US-China tariff deal suggests less of a drag on the economy through the rest of this year.
Research Briefing
We will not change our US forecasts based on the latest US-UK deal and what it signals for future agreements.
Research Briefing
The worst-case US tariff scenario sees significantly weaker growth than in our baseline, but the upsides to growth for many...
Research Briefing
The significant escalation in US tariffs since early April is set to generate a shallow recession in global industry, though...
Research Briefing
Electronics, electricals, motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals and machinery are most exposed globally to US-imposed tariffs.
Research Briefing
Most commodity price forecasts are cut due to tariffs except for gold and battery metals, which show resilience amid global...
Research Briefing
Trade tensions between the US and China have continued to ratchet-up over the last week. While the exemptions to technology...
