Research Briefing
The incoming data likely warrant some adjustments to the baseline forecast, particularly for the path of the target range for...
Recession
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Research Briefing
After a difficult 2022 for UK households, we expect real income to fall 1.2% in 2023 due to a range...
Research Briefing
Our indicators suggest global economic sentiment is improving despite the impact of higher interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and the squeeze...
Research Briefing
Housing affordability deteriorated in 2022 by the most since the housing crisis and rebalancing is needed to foment healthier market...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
Research Briefing
We expect the UK economy to be in recession in 2023, with GDP forecast to contract by 0.7% in the...
Research Briefing
In this new quarterly Research Briefing series, we answer the top five questions we've recently received from clients.
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession beginning in the second quarter of 2023. Despite recent moderation,...
Research Briefing
Though our baseline forecast this year is a shallow global recession in the first half of the year the uncertainty...
Research Briefing
Major shocks over the past two years have prompted US manufacturing firms to rethink their supply chains, with greater inventory...
Research Briefing
The latest Beige Book revealed an economy that on balance was treading water heading into 2023.
Research Briefing
Metal prices ended 2022 lower than they started the year, despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine initially causing prices to...
Research Briefing
Despite sluggish demand growth prospects, advanced economies (AEs) automotives production growth is forecast to accelerate in 2023 as easing supply...
Research Briefing
While nearly every metro in Canada will experience at least a minor recession between Q4 2022 and Q3 2023, on...
Research Briefing
The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a recession next year because the headwinds are about to intensify. We...
Research Briefing
Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.
Research Briefing
We expect Central and Eastern Europe will start 2023 in a synchronized economic downturn, like the rest of the EU.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions in Canada have tightened significantly this year and we estimate this will shave 0.7ppts off GDP growth by...
Research Briefing
Tightening US financial conditions over the past year will likely trim 0.2ppts from Q4 2022 GDP growth.
Research Briefing
In a tough global environment, we are below consensus on advanced economy growth and anticipate most will fall into recession...
