Tariffs spark uncertainty in the global industrial sector, raising recession risks. What’s next for businesses? Discover insights from Oxford Economics.
Recession
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Research Briefing
Rising tariffs, tightening credit, and slowing demand are straining the US economy especially for small businesses. Could these be early...
Research Briefing
A number of recession warnings were flashing yellow and red last year, but the economy didn't falter and entered the...
Research Briefing
Blanket 25% tariffs on Canada threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump earlier this week would push Canada into a recession...
Research Briefing
Since we adopted greater protectionism in our November US forecast, the risks to our baseline have become more balanced. But...
Research Briefing
Our proprietary models signal the lowest probability of recession in more than two years as strong incoming data indicates that...
Research Briefing
European industry is still in the midst of an almost two-year recession, but we believe that the end is increasingly...
Research Briefing
Our probability of recession models showed marked improvement in September, reversing much of the recent rise. Against this backdrop, our...
Research Briefing
The external shocks to the economy have been diminished, thanks to the suspension of the dockworkers strike announced on Thursday...
Research Briefing
Recession alarm bells should sound a bit muted with an encouraging employment report, solid gains in retail sales, and a...
Research Briefing
The economy remains in transition and is settling into a more sustainable pace of growth, with next year being decent...
Research Briefing
A surge in temporary layoffs drove another rise in the unemployment rate in July, stoking recession concerns and fears that...
US economy is in transition, but no signs of a recession are imminent. While weaker-than-expected US labour market data have...
Research Briefing
The smaller-than-anticipated gain in July and the rise in the unemployment rate will give the perception that the Federal Reserve...
In this month’s Canada Up Close, Michael Davenport, Economist, will be providing a mid-year update of our outlook for the...
Research Briefing
Recession fears are overdone and premature. The economic data has generally come in weaker than expected, but this is not...
Research Briefing
The relatively tepid 1.6% annualized gain in Q1 GDP does not present cause for concern, nor does it mean the...
Research Briefing
Our business cycle indicator shows the economy hit a rough patch at the start of the year but there is...
The 2024 federal budget projects a steady diet of wider deficits over the next five years, adding new spending only...
Despite the upgrade to our global economic outlook since December 2023, the Q1 update of our IFRS 9 and CECL...
