Research Briefing
Our sentiment data, developed with Penta, suggests that UK private sector wage growth slowed sharply in March and early-April. If...
Labor Markets
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Research Briefing
We expect the March employment report to show moderating job growth, adding to the Federal Reserve's confidence that the labor...
Research Briefing
Our business cycle indicator implies that the economy is losing momentum, but there are some caveats. Some of the data...
Research Briefing
The odds of a recession have declined over the past several months because of a strong labor market, a deceleration...
Research Briefing
The economy is weakening, but the incoming data are consistent with a slowdown rather than a technical recession.
Research Briefing
The rapid surge in interest rates will continue to weigh on the Nordic economies next year with little external support,...
Research Briefing
In our latest forecast, we removed the mild recession from our baseline and now anticipate a prolonged period of below-trend...
Research Briefing
While the economy has expanded throughout 2023, uncertainty remains high and we are not ready to remove a recession from...
In the context of an accelerated expansion of the tech industry, and the implementation of policies like the CHIPS and...
Research Briefing
The Australian economy is slowing, with tight monetary policy and falling real incomes curbing demand and earlier supply constraints still...
Consulting Report
We project the semiconductor industry’s workforce will grow by nearly 115,000 jobs by 2030, from approximately 345,000 jobs today to...
Research Briefing
We expect downward pressure from multiple factors to push inflation lower by the end of 2023. Weaker demand and reduced...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress has eased significantly despite resilient consumer and business spending, a reassuring development for the inflation outlook.
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress eased in April, which will put downward pressure on goods prices and allow the Fed to pause...
Research Briefing
Despite the US dollar already moderating from a multi-year peak in late 2022, we expect it to remain relatively strong...
Research Briefing
We receive many questions on the state of the US economy from clients. Here, we answer the top five most...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress continued to ease in February despite stronger-than-expected economic growth. Supply chains could return to pre-pandemic conditions by...
Research Briefing
Metros labeled as "college towns" have consistently seen steadier yet often lower job growth than the US average over the...
Research Briefing
The incoming data likely warrant some adjustments to the baseline forecast, particularly for the path of the target range for...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
