Research Briefing
RESEARCH BRIEFING Shipping in for the long haul of Middle East conflict Uneven trade disruptions emerge as energy spikes immediately...
Energy prices
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Research Briefing
War in the Middle East and the shutdown of Qatari LNG exports have effectively removed roughly 20% of global LNG...
Research Briefing
Rising oil and gas prices expose economies to shocks. Could expanding renewable energy be the key to stability?
Research Briefing
In response to the US-Iran war, we've downgraded our forecast for GCC real GDP growth by 1.8ppts to 2.6% for...
Research Briefing
Disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz poses a bigger threat to Asia than higher oil prices, risking...
Research Briefing
Energy prices are pushing inflation higher in the UK and Eurozone, undermining the idea that central banks can simply look...
Research Briefing
Leading cities like London, New York, and San Jose are thriving through technology, knowledge industries, and demographic advantages. As global...
Research Briefing
The fate of global oil prices hangs on Russia. Sanctions, rerouted exports, and a potential ceasefire could drive Brent and...
Research Briefing
Our scenario analysis reveals a partial shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would push the Japanese economy into...
Research Briefing
Rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the course of 2025 may not boost growth to the same degree...
Research Briefing
The chemical industries in the US and EU are at the precipice of a major divergence. We believe that a...
Research Briefing
Our proprietary business cycle phase indicator reveals that industrial activity in the advanced economies, which has been in recession for...
Research Briefing
Overall, we are slightly more bullish on commodity prices across the forecast horizon as we expect higher metal prices than...
Research Briefing
Our new forecast assumes a slower euro appreciation against the dollar over the coming years than we previously anticipated. Relative...
Research Briefing
Even though incoming hard data on eurozone industry is still downbeat, leading indicators suggest that we're at a turning point....
Research Briefing
We expect another year of industrial metal price weakness in 2024 and are generally below consensus. Metal demand will remain...
The United States and Europe are both set to fall into a shallow industrial recession this year, thanks to a...
Research Briefing
We expect widespread declines in inflation and interest rates in 2024 across advanced economies. A key differentiator, however, is that...
Research Briefing
We expect eurozone inflation will fall below the European Central Bank's target in H2 2024. This is one of our...
The United States and Europe are both set to fall into a shallow industrial recession this year, thanks to a...
