Research Briefing
News-based measures show a sharp rise in uncertainty in early 2026, driven by geopolitics and tariffs. But survey evidence and...
Economic uncertainty
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Research Briefing
Uncertainty’s adverse impact on investment takes time to materialise, but our leading indicator of investment orders shows it is coming.
Elections have consequences, and inaugurating a new president means policy change will soon follow.
Research Briefing
We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a...
Research Briefing
The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with downside risks threatening global real estate.
Research Briefing
Central banks and many other forecasters may be underestimating the risk of persistently high inflation. While our view is that...
Research Briefing
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% yesterday, undershooting consensus and our expectation of...
Research Briefing
The energy crisis took a dramatic turn this week after reports of several leaks in the gas pipelines Nordstream 1...
Research Briefing
The recent escalation of the conflict between Poland and the European Union has significantly increased the odds of a decisive...
The upsets and surprises of the past 12 months show all too clearly how, in an ever more unpredictable world,...
