Our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 4.1%. With all domestic restrictions eased and the pandemic largely under...
Economic outlook
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Research Briefing
Private bank credit contracted 2.7% in 2020 in Indonesia and continued to decline on a year-on-year basis through most of...
Research Briefing
Asia’s economic performance over the next six to nine months will continue to be hugely influenced by developments in the...
Research Briefing
Notwithstanding Covid-related risks, we expect Asian currencies will show resilience in the face of tighter US monetary policy, particularly when...
Research Briefing
The role of the RMB is greatest where China is a major destination for manufacturing exports, suggesting that the degree...
Research Briefing
Canada will likely usher in another minority government when voters hit the polls on Sept 20, led by either the...
Research Briefing
We remain bullish on the outlook for the Canadian economy over the next two years despite a surprising contraction in...
Research Briefing
At the September policy meeting, the CBR is likely to consider staying on hold or hiking its policy rate 25bp...
Research Briefing
Our ASEAN-6 growth tracker, which includes Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam, points to a weak start to...
Research Briefing
The Egyptian economy has proven resilient in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, but more recent PMI figures suggest that...
The construction sector has been one of the most resilient areas of the economy during the pandemic. As many other...
Research Briefing
The race to succeed long-term Chancellor Merkel and lead Europe’s largest economy is wide open. But we think Germany will...
The rising threat of climate change is challenging governments around the world. Previous research by colleagues at Oxford Economics concludes...
Research Briefing
We now expect the long-run nominal neutral policy rate – i.e., the rate at which the economy is in equilibrium...
Research Briefing
We expect the more transmissible Delta coronavirus variant will have a much lower impact on European economies than previous waves,...
Research Briefing
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has played a key role in leading India’s pandemic policy response. While elevated inflation...
Research Briefing
A string of new Covid-19 outbreaks is weighing on the APAC region’s economic recovery. Among Asia’s developed economies, the case...
Research Briefing
Due to ongoing pandemic-related spending needs, we now expect Indonesia’s fiscal deficit will narrow to 3% of GDP only by...
Commodity price surges were associated with spikes in inflation in the 1970s, but have not been so in recent decades....
Inflation has become the all-consuming focus of investors’ attention in recent weeks. On the surface the story is simple—transitory factors...
