Research Briefing | Oct 28, 2021

Russia | CBR views new lockdown as inflationary and hikes 75bp

Ipad Frame - Russia-CBR-views-new-lockdown-as-inflationary-and-hikes-75bp

The CBR today surprised the market and us with a 75bp hike, which brought the policy rate to 7.50%. The CBR language has remained hawkish, suggesting that another hike may be on the cards in December.What you will learn:

  • Furthermore, the CBR has raised its forecast for its average policy rate in 2022 to 7.3-8.3% from 6.0-7.0% in July.
  • We see it as a signal that it could potentially continue tightening into 2022 if inflation expectations keep deteriorating.
  • The CBR’s hawkish stance supports our heavy RUB OW. With USDRUB briefly testing the psychological level of 70 today, we expect further appreciation in the coming weeks, supported by the strong fundamentals and attractive carry.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Office building, commercial real estate

Post

New indices offer insights into real estate sentiment

Our new suite of sentiment indices show global CRE sentiment has deteriorated significantly this year.

Find Out More
Global industrial recession sign

Post

Tariff escalation to cause global industrial downturn

The significant escalation in US tariffs since early April is set to generate a shallow recession in global industry, though growth will remain positive in annual terms.

Find Out More