Russia | CBR views new lockdown as inflationary and hikes 75bp
The CBR today surprised the market and us with a 75bp hike, which brought the policy rate to 7.50%. The CBR language has remained hawkish, suggesting that another hike may be on the cards in December.What you will learn:
- Furthermore, the CBR has raised its forecast for its average policy rate in 2022 to 7.3-8.3% from 6.0-7.0% in July.
- We see it as a signal that it could potentially continue tightening into 2022 if inflation expectations keep deteriorating.
- The CBR’s hawkish stance supports our heavy RUB OW. With USDRUB briefly testing the psychological level of 70 today, we expect further appreciation in the coming weeks, supported by the strong fundamentals and attractive carry.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.
Find Out More
Post
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.
Find Out More