It's widely believed that global growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and that advanced economy central banks will begin...
Central banks
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 103 results
Research Briefing
Our latest scenario analysis suggests that the global economy would falter in the event of an escalation of the Israel-Hamas...
Research Briefing
We see the recent increase in term premia as explainable by the ongoing retreat of price insensitive foreign buyers, structurally...
Research Briefing
We expect Latin America's six largest countries' combined GDP to expand 0.8% next year, down from our 1.8% forecast for...
Research Briefing
We continue to forecast growth in global construction activity over 2023, albeit at a slower rate than we anticipated at...
Our analysis shows that inflation, in most countries, will be lower than consensus expects. With EM disinflation clearly on track,...
Central banks may be nearing the end of the rate hiking cycle, but does that mean it is a good...
Research Briefing
Monetary policy is at a critical juncture. After decades of low and stable inflation, the seismic supply adverse shocks and...
Research Briefing
The recent banking sector turmoil could trigger a chain reaction of events that plunges the global economy into recession. However,...
Research Briefing
The Czech National Bank again kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for a sixth consecutive time at the meeting today. This was...
Research Briefing
The failures of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank have not changed our baseline forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, or...
Research Briefing
A cautious 2023 budget amid the need to stabilize government finances post pandemic means that fiscal policy won't be able...
Research Briefing
Our indicators suggest global economic sentiment is improving despite the impact of higher interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and the squeeze...
Research Briefing
Financial conditions have deteriorated across ASEAN-5 economies to varying degrees. As well as monetary tightening, a broad depreciation of currencies...
Research Briefing
Though a correction in values is firmly underway for European commercial real estate markets, we believe the worst is yet...
Research Briefing
The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for the fourth consecutive meeting today, in line...
Research Briefing
We doubt the surprise move from the Bank of Japan to expand the tolerance range for 10-year JGB yields to...
Research Briefing
Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions in Canada have tightened significantly this year and we estimate this will shave 0.7ppts off GDP growth by...
Research Briefing
We think the Bank of Korea (BoK) will continue to focus on inflation and the Korean won (KRW) even as headwinds to growth and financial stability rise. In our view, an extended...
