Research Briefing
Blanket 25% tariffs on Canada threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump earlier this week would push Canada into a recession...
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Research Briefing
The government's plan to cut immigration and reduce the number of temporary residents will cause Canada's population to decrease slightly...
In this month’s Canada Up Close, Michael Davenport, Economist, will be providing a mid-year update of our outlook for the...
In this month’s Canada Up Close, Cassidy Rheaume, Associate Economist, discusses why we expect lower house prices and falling mortgage...
Research Briefing
Lower house prices and falling mortgage rates will reduce stubbornly high shelter inflation and help return headline CPI inflation to...
The 2024 federal budget projects a steady diet of wider deficits over the next five years, adding new spending only...
Total mortgage payments surged after the Bank of Canada began aggressively hiking interest rates in early 2022. In this month’s...
Research Briefing
Mortgage payments have soared since the Bank of Canada began aggressively hiking interest rates in early 2022, and there is...
In our view, the Canadian economy has slipped into a moderate recession that will create slack, ease price pressures, and...
We believe the Canadian economy has slipped into a moderate recession that will create slack, ease price pressures and help...
The Canadian economy will begin 2024 still mired in recession as the lagged impact of higher interest rates continues to...
Research Briefing
The Canadian economy will begin 2024 still mired in recession as the lagged impact of higher interest rates continues to...
Research Briefing
Our new demographic projection suggests rapid international migration will boost Canada's population to 42mn by 2025, which would be a...
Research Briefing
Canada's economy has now likely fallen into the recession that we have long been expecting. Key imbalances – highly indebted...
After stalling in Q4, the Canadian economy likely grew modestly in Q1. Labour markets have also shown impressive resilience, with...
Research Briefing
As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held the target for the overnight rate steady at 4.5% in April and...
Research Briefing
Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions in Canada have tightened significantly this year and we estimate this will shave 0.7ppts off GDP growth by...
Research Briefing
Policy divergence will continue to be a key theme in global FI markets in 2023. Whereas we pencil in a...
Research Briefing
We do not believe the moderate recession forecast this winter and the deepening housing correction completely undermines the medium-term case...
