Research Briefing | Jun 17, 2021

MENA | Saudi Q1 GDP; Regional inflation and Iran breakthrough

Copy of Copy of Copy of Ipad Frame (51)

Saudi Arabia’s GDP fell 3.0% y/y in Q1 according to newly released data, slightly less than preliminary estimates suggested. The decline was mainly driven by oil output cuts, while non-oil activity expanded by 2.9%, rebounding from 0.8% y/y contraction seen in Q4 last year.

What you will learn:

  • Saudi inflation rose to 5.7% y/y in May from 5.3% y/y in April, but we still expect the rate to ease in H2 as base effects from last year’s VAT hike fade. Meanwhile, Qatar registered a second consecutive positive inflation rate, up to 2.5%, following a sustained period of deflation.
  • The US has lifted some sanctions on Iran’s energy sector in a move characterised as a “good faith approach” by the Biden administration.
  • Despite some progress in the Vienna talks, a full return to the JCPOA is likely to be further complicated with an expected win for hardliner front-runner Ebrahim Raisi in the upcoming presidential elections.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Key Global Construction Themes 2024

Global construction activity is forecast to fall over 2024. In this context, we have identified 6 themes that we think will dominate the narrative of the construction sector over 2024.

Find Out More

Post

South Africa: Elections 2024 | ‘Moonshot’ election scenario

This is the last of the four Research Briefings on scenarios for South Africa's general election on May 29. In this scenario, the centre-right opposition to the ANC, united in a coalition around the DA, secures enough votes to form a majority.

Find Out More