Research Briefing | May 12, 2022

Refugees in Poland will lift economy’s potential, but challenges remain

Around 3.2mn Ukrainian refugees, over half of the total number, have escaped to Poland since the start of the Russian invasion. Some of them are expected to become permanent residents of the country, which will boost the labour supply, employment, and the potential output of the economy.

What you will learn:

  • Although we estimate that these impacts will be tangible, we think that the inflow of refugees is unlikely to solve the long-standing demographic challenges the Polish economy faces.
  • Although recent polls suggest that most refugees want to go back to Ukraine when the war abates, favourable government policy, cultural and language similarities, a tight labour market, and high wage growth all increase the chances that a significant share of the refugees will stay.
  • But even if a fairly large proportion of refugees stay, it would only partially ease the strained labour market.

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