US | Recovery Tracker marches steadily higher
The US Recovery Tracker rose 1.3ppts to 88.1 in the week ended March 26 on gains across most of the tracker’s six categories. The recovery maintained its momentum despite health dynamics worsening. Weekly gains were led by stronger production, driven by greater business startup activity and firmer upstream and downstream energy output.
What you will learn from this report:
- Mobility rose as better weather and looser Covid restrictions spurred more travel. Demand increased as stronger consumer purchasing power boosted spending activity. Employment rose on greater job postings and hiring.
- Public officials are confronting a conundrum: the vaccine rollout is accelerating, but new coronavirus case rates are concurrently ticking higher. Officials should be wary of premature reopening risks. Almost all states will expand vaccine eligibility to all adults by April 19, but it will take time to reach
herd immunity and only 25% of adults are currently fully vaccinated.
- Regional recoveries firmed, with 42 states recording higher readings at the end of March. The boost from vaccinations was partly offset by the resurgence of the virus in some states, while mobility, activity, and employment increased.
Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.Find Out More
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.Find Out More