Research Briefing | Apr 9, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker marches steadily higher

Ipad Frame (25)-1

The US Recovery Tracker rose 1.3ppts to 88.1 in the week ended March 26 on gains across most of the tracker’s six categories. The recovery maintained its momentum despite health dynamics worsening. Weekly gains were led by stronger production, driven by greater business startup activity and firmer upstream and downstream energy output.

What you will learn from this report:

  • Mobility rose as better weather and looser Covid restrictions spurred more travel. Demand increased as stronger consumer purchasing power boosted spending activity. Employment rose on greater job postings and hiring.
  • Public officials are confronting a conundrum: the vaccine rollout is accelerating, but new coronavirus case rates are concurrently ticking higher. Officials should be wary of premature reopening risks. Almost all states will expand vaccine eligibility to all adults by April 19, but it will take time to reach
    herd immunity and only 25% of adults are currently fully vaccinated.
  • Regional recoveries firmed, with 42 states recording higher readings at the end of March. The boost from vaccinations was partly offset by the resurgence of the virus in some states, while mobility, activity, and employment increased.
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