US | Recovery Tracker gave back some gains in early May
The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.5ppts to 91.1 in the week ending May 7, the second decline in three weeks. With four of the six subcomponents dropping, we believe this illustrates the bumpy road to a full recovery. Encouraging health conditions, warmer weather, and healthy household finances should power a historic summer boom.
What you will learn:
- Production weakened on reduced refinery output and business activity, and demand softened as consumers cut back modestly on credit card spending. Employment fell on modestly weaker hiring at small businesses. Financial conditions tightened slightly on lower equity prices.
- Health conditions continued to improve, with nearly 40% of the adult population vaccinated and the lowest number of new infections since last summer. Mobility also rose as Americans made greater use of public transit.
- Our State Recovery Trackers corroborate the early-May weakness, with 35 states recording lower readings. All regions lost ground, led by the South and Midwest. Of the large states, only Florida, New York, and Texas held steady.
CRE key themes 2024 – A year of transition
After a difficult 2023, we think five key themes will shape the outlook for commercial real estate next year.Find Out More
Japan Key themes 2024 – Will wage-led inflation gain momentum?
Inflation will likely decelerate in 2024 as the impact of imported inflation wanes. We expect the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy in April after confirming a high wage settlement. But our medium-term projection is that a zero-interest rate policy will take its place and last for years.Find Out More