US | Recovery Tracker gave back some gains in early May
The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.5ppts to 91.1 in the week ending May 7, the second decline in three weeks. With four of the six subcomponents dropping, we believe this illustrates the bumpy road to a full recovery. Encouraging health conditions, warmer weather, and healthy household finances should power a historic summer boom.
What you will learn:
- Production weakened on reduced refinery output and business activity, and demand softened as consumers cut back modestly on credit card spending. Employment fell on modestly weaker hiring at small businesses. Financial conditions tightened slightly on lower equity prices.
- Health conditions continued to improve, with nearly 40% of the adult population vaccinated and the lowest number of new infections since last summer. Mobility also rose as Americans made greater use of public transit.
- Our State Recovery Trackers corroborate the early-May weakness, with 35 states recording lower readings. All regions lost ground, led by the South and Midwest. Of the large states, only Florida, New York, and Texas held steady.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.
Find Out More
Post
China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods
We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).
Find Out More