Research Briefing | May 21, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker gave back some gains in early May

Ipad Frame (40)

The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.5ppts to 91.1 in the week ending May 7, the second decline in three weeks. With four of the six subcomponents dropping, we believe this illustrates the bumpy road to a full recovery. Encouraging health conditions, warmer weather, and healthy household finances should power a historic summer boom.

What you will learn:

  • Production weakened on reduced refinery output and business activity, and demand softened as consumers cut back modestly on credit card spending. Employment fell on modestly weaker hiring at small businesses. Financial conditions tightened slightly on lower equity prices.
  • Health conditions continued to improve, with nearly 40% of the adult population vaccinated and the lowest number of new infections since last summer. Mobility also rose as Americans made greater use of public transit.
  • Our State Recovery Trackers corroborate the early-May weakness, with 35 states recording lower readings. All regions lost ground, led by the South and Midwest. Of the large states, only Florida, New York, and Texas held steady.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Finland’s growth forecast cut amid weak confidence and soaring inflation

We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland to 1.5% from 1.7% last month, as weakening confidence further dampens the outlook. We expect inflation to peak higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting consumption. Russia has accounted for almost 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe.

Find Out More

Post

Why we see eurozone inflation slowing sharply next year

We have revised our 2022 eurozone inflation forecasts sharply higher, to 6.0%, since the start of the Ukraine war, as energy and food prices began to soar and new supply bottlenecks emerged. That said, we still see inflation decelerating sharply to 1.3% in 2023, putting us below consensus. While we recognise significant risks to our views, inflation should slow to below 2% in H2 2023.

Find Out More