Post ‘Liberation Day’ Interim Update in New Zealand

We have produced an interim Global Construction Forecast update to reflect the fast-changing trade environment. We now forecast total construction work done to decline 4.9% in 2025, down from -3.9% in our Q1 update.

Our baseline forecasts assume US tariffs on the rest of the world remain at 10%, with three exceptions. We assume the average effective tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be 13% and 15% respectively but will fall below 2% when a new USMCA trade deal is negotiated next year. We assume average tariffs on China will remain above 100% for the duration of the forecast period.

This interim forecast update feeds our updated macroeconomic and industry house views into our construction forecasting model. The update is therefore a model-driven ‘top down’ forecast and does not account for changes to individual projects.