Policy and concentrated supply set to drive rare-earth magnet prices

We have added forecasts for neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—the four rare earth elements central to high-performance permanent magnets to our Global Commodities Service. Demand is supported by electric vehicles, wind turbines, industrial motors, robotics, data centres, and defence applications.

What you will learn in this report:

• Our forecasts point to gradual, but not uniform, price growth through 2035. Neodymium and praseodymium are larger light-rare-earth markets, while dysprosium and terbium are smaller heavy-rare-earth markets with more concentrated supply and greater exposure to export controls.
• Demand-side innovation should temper, rather than eliminate, these pressures. Magnet manufacturers have reduced heavy-rare-earth intensity through improved motor design, and greater material efficiency. Recycling will also become more important as larger volumes of electric-vehicle motors, wind turbines, and electronics reach end of life. These changes constrain long-run demand per unit of equipment, but they require investment, technical qualification, and reliable scrap streams, so they provide limited protection against a sudden near-term supply shock.
• China’s position is strongest beyond the mine: it accounted for 60% of magnet rare-earth mining but 91% of refining and 94% of permanent-magnet production in 2024. Policy support can build alternative capacity, but it is also creating a higher-cost western market alongside the Chinese core.