No escape from Myanmar military coup’s economic damage
Myanmar’s Feb. 1 military coup, which ousted the newly reelected NDL party over unsubstantiated claims of election fraud, has been deadly in human terms and devastating economically. Our once-positive outlook for this year and the medium term has soured. We now see GDP contracting 13% in FY2020-2021 (ending in September).
What you will learn:
- The Feb. 1 military coup in Myanmar and its impacts lead us to now forecast GDP will contract 13% in FY2020-2021 (ending in September).
- Anti-military protests have paralyzed Myanmar’s economy, and restrictions on the internet and banking sectors have severely disrupted activity. We expect international sanctions and high political and business risks will crush exports and investment. The risks for this year and next are heavily skewed to the downside, including potential banking and balance-of-payments crises.
- We expect the Tatmadaw (military) to remain in power, but at a huge economic cost. Growth will likely slowly recover over coming quarters, but we estimate that continued political instability and heightened security risks will lead to lower FDI inflows and investment. We see GDP still around 18% lower in 2025 than before the coup and GDP per capita around US$1000 lower.
Africa Watchlist 2024: Devaluations, coups, and green hydrogen
Next year holds promise for the dawning of a new industry in Africa and somewhat of a commercial renaissance taking place in Kenya – East Africa’s economic anchor. Our watchlist for 2024 also foregrounds major currency devaluations in Ethiopia and Egypt and a strong probability of coups d’état in Cameroon and Tunisia. We expect support for the African National Congress (ANC) to drop below 50% in South Africa's general elections, but that coalitions with smaller parties will allow the ruling party to cling to power.Find Out More
Capital catalysts – Funding development when budgets are tight in Africa
In this presentation deck, we grappled with some of the Africa’s most pressing issues for 2024 and beyond. We explored Africa’s alternative funding strategies during challenging times, examined the continent’s growth hotspot, and unpacked South Africa’s political economy in the lead up to the general elections in 2024.Find Out More