Research Briefing | May 28, 2021

US inflation will be higher for longer

US  Inflation will be higher for longer

Over the past year, we have consistently predicted higher inflation stemming from base effects, stronger activity in the wake of the economic reopening, higher commodities prices, and supply chain bottlenecks. But two uncertainties cloud the outlook: the level that inflation will peak at, and the persistence of inflation into 2022.

What you will learn from this report:

  • Our latest US headline CPI inflation and core PCE inflation forecasts.
  • Where could the risks of overheating come from?
  • How will the Fed react?

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