US inflation will be higher for longer
Over the past year, we have consistently predicted higher inflation stemming from base effects, stronger activity in the wake of the economic reopening, higher commodities prices, and supply chain bottlenecks. But two uncertainties cloud the outlook: the level that inflation will peak at, and the persistence of inflation into 2022.
What you will learn from this report:
- Our latest US headline CPI inflation and core PCE inflation forecasts.
- Where could the risks of overheating come from?
- How will the Fed react?
Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.Find Out More
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.Find Out More