Research Briefing | Oct 21, 2021

MENA | IMF MENA outlook, Oman ratings, Saudi green plans

 IMF MENA outlook, Oman ratings, Saudi green plans

The IMF’s updated GDP growth projection for MENA is largely in line with our baseline, although we are more optimistic than the Fund on the GCC. The IMF has nudged its overall 2021 forecast up by 0.1pp to 4.1%, while the 2022 figure has been raised by 0.4 pp to 4.1% (versus our projections of 3.9% and 4.3% respectively). The Fund sees the GCC growing by 4.2% next year, slower than our forecast of 5.1%.

What you will learn:

  • Saudi Arabia plans to unveil its ‘Green Growth’ strategy during conferences it is hosting from 23 October in which policy makers, business leaders and academics will discuss green initiatives. 
  • The IMF’s October Economic Outlook for the MENA region warns of ongoing challenges to recovery, particularly for countries with weak vaccination progress and limited macro policy space.
  • Growth for the region has been revised higher for 2022, to 4.1% from 3.7% on the back of improved oil sector dynamics, while changes to 2021 forecasts were mixed, leaving the overall projection little changed at 4.1%. 
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