Global | Risk metrics reveal more optimism, more complacency

An array of metrics points to improved global prospects, based on our latest
review of alternative gauges of economic risk. All suggest stronger – in some
cases, much stronger – 2021 growth than they indicated two months ago.

What you will learn :

• The improvement in business sentiment has been limited, however. Based on responses to our regular Global Risk Survey, businesses still expect a relatively moderate rebound this year.
• With the exception of evidence from previous pandemics, all our other metrics point to a faster pace of recovery.
• Greater optimism appears to be accompanied by greater complacency. We find that many other forecasters are attaching a small probability to material surprises to both growth and inflation.