Research Briefing | Jun 18, 2021

Eurozone | The winners and losers from global tax reform

Ipad Frame_Eurozone - The winners and losers from global tax reform

If implemented, the global tax reforms agreed at this month’s G7 meeting would set a floor for corporate tax rates and enable countries to tax companies where they generate income. According to our modelling, the winners in Europe will far outnumber the losers, with the largest economies likely to benefit the most.

What you will learn:

  • For the four countries that will be worst affected by the reforms, our modelling points to large hits to their public finances. Three – Luxembourg, Netherlands, and Hungary – have relatively healthy public finances and the impact looks manageable.
  • The reforms will leave Ireland as one of the most highly-indebted economies in Europe, based on a public debt to modified GNI metric.
  • For the eurozone the net impact on debt-to-GDP ratios is positive, with an average 0.4ppts improvement, driven by the largest economies.

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