Canada | Recovery Tracker enters May with positive momentum
The Canada Recovery Tracker (CRT) rose 1.4ppts to 87.4 in the week ended May 7 and is once again heading in the right direction. The health index has made steady improvements across all categories in recent weeks, and about half the population has received at least one dose as of late May. The mobility and activity indices are also trending upward again, and several provinces have now presented plans to fully reopen their economies in coming months. Eased restrictions should allow for a strong economic acceleration in H2 2021, supported by massive fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary policy, and robust US growth.
What you will learn:
- The health index climbed 9.3ppts, as new cases per million, the positive test rate, and hospitalizations all improved for the second consecutive week.
- The activity index jumped 9.3ppts, led by gains in consumer spending, air traffic, and restaurant bookings.
- The sentiment index fell 1.3ppts, its seventh consecutive drop, as declines in durable goods and housing interest more than offset rising consumer confidence and travel interest.
BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.Find Out More
China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods
We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).Find Out More