Research Briefing | May 19, 2021

Canada | Recovery Tracker ends a cruel April on a hopeful note

Canada Recovery Tracker ends a cruel April on a hopeful note - iPad

The Canada Recovery Tracker (CRT) edged up 0.3ppts to 86 in the week ended April 30 as increases in six of seven subcomponents led to the first gain in six weeks. Despite falling 5.2% in April, the CRT ended the month with some upward momentum. The health index has now improved in back-to-back weeks, and the recent drop in the reproductive rate below 1, along with continued progress on vaccinations, should support further gains on the health front in May-June. We remain hopeful that a better health situation will allow for restrictions to ease and economic activity to accelerate in H2 2021.

What you will learn:

  • The health index climbed 10.9ppts, its second consecutive rise. All subcomponents contributed to the gain, as new cases per million, the positive test rate, and hospitalizations all declined. 
  • The activity index rose 0.6ppts, as higher air traffic and railway shipments more than offset declines in consumer spending, restaurant bookings, and oil and gas rigs. Mobility also improved 3.3ppts. 
  • The sentiment index fell 4.8ppts, its sixth straight drop, as declines in durable goods, travel, and housing interest more than offset an uptick in consumer confidence.

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