The impact of AI is highly visible in some segments of the economy but barely seen in others, leaving the net effect on productivity, employment, and GDP as negligible at best.
Marquis Green
Concerns that the Trump administration would abandon climate policies were confirmed within hours of returning to office.
With US President Trump’s persistent tariff threats, a US-Canada trade war now appears likely.
The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast.
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Tariffs act as a regressive tax on households as they are applied to imported goods, many of which fall into the category of non-discretionary spending on such things as clothing, food, and energy—necessities most households cannot go without.
The major policy proposals planned for the second Trump administration will have mixed implications for the US economy in 2025 and beyond, and the impacts on metro areas will vary significantly.
Start-of-the-year residual seasonality occurs because supplier and labor contracts are usually
renegotiated in January, leading to an upward bias in wage and price statistics.
The impact from the wildfires in the Los Angeles area on the US labor market and GDP will be small, potentially shaving 0.2ppts to 0.3ppts off Q1 GDP.
Senior Editor Teri Robinson spoke with Chief US Economist Ryan Sweet about the what the second Trump administration will mean for cybersecurity, including the shifting responsibilities of defenders the safety of critical infrastructure, and the rise of AI.
Donald Trump’s tariff threats for day one of his new presidency would have a heavy impact on the Mexican economy and ripple effects on the rest of Latin America.
Elections have consequences, and inaugurating a new president means policy change will soon follow.
The debt limit was reinstated at $36tn on January 2, but it’s not a hard deadline for Congress to act upon immediately. Therefore, the reinstatement of the debt limit does not have implications for our near-term forecast.
Our probability of recession models are approaching their zero bound and are at their lowest levels in more than two years, as leading indicators signal an encouraging outlook.
The aggregate economic impact of the recently finalised EU-Mercosur trade pact will be modest if it gets final approval.
The creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), along with the incoming Treasury secretary’s goal of halving the deficit as a share of GDP, lend downside risk to our baseline forecast for federal spending.
The three major policy proposals planned for the second Trump administration—expansionary fiscal policy, lower immigration, and tariffs—will have mixed implications for the US economy over the next few years, and the impacts on metro areas will vary significantly.
Trump’s first term was marked by policies and pronouncements that strained international relations, including trade tariffs and a travel ban on selected countries.
January poses a triple threat to US imports
This year’s 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) resulted in underwhelming outcomes.
