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Vietnam’s GDP grew by an average rate of 7% annually in the past three decades, surpassing all its ASEAN regional peers. Although 2023 and 2024 are set to see Vietnam’s weakest growth outside of Covid years, we think the pain is short-term.
Idiosyncrasies in recent Asian trade data suggest that country-specific factors are becoming more influential and causing some countries’ exports to buck cyclical trends. If that continues, the fortunes of regional exporters will diverge further in 2024, though we still think the overall export trend will be subdued.
