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South Africa was particularly hard hit by the Covid-19 pandemic as the government imposed strict containment measures. As such, the economy recorded a 7% contraction in 2020. The recovery has yielded better-than-expected results thus far, however, we expect the recovery process to be slow and gradual. The poor vaccination drive and electricity outages will weigh on economic activity over the short term.

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Research Briefing | Jun 29, 2021

Africa | The Green Revolution: where does Africa fit in?

The first page of Oxford Economics' Research Briefing titled The Green Revolution: where does Africa fit in?

Africa is a key source of the minerals that will be central to the green energy transition. The level of proven reserves means that the continent stands to benefit considerably if it is able to generate the investment needed to increase production. This will assist with diversification efforts in West Africa and could propel the DRC onto a stronger development trajectory.

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Research Briefing | Jun 29, 2021

Africa | The Green Revolution: where does Africa fit in?

The first page of Oxford Economics' Research Briefing titled The Green Revolution: where does Africa fit in?

Africa is a key source of the minerals that will be central to the green energy transition. The level of proven reserves means that the continent stands to benefit considerably if it is able to generate the investment needed to increase production. This will assist with diversification efforts in West Africa and could propel the DRC onto a stronger development trajectory.

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Blog|28 June 2021

Regime change: should we get used to high inflation?

Innes McFee
Innes McFee
CEO
Regime change: should we get used to high inflation?

Inflation has become the all-consuming focus of investors’ attention in recent weeks. On the surface the story is simple—transitory factors (including the supply bottlenecks created by the reopening and a recent surge in commodity prices) have pushed inflation well above target in many economies but, as they fade, inflation is set to return to target. Consequently, markets have been pretty sanguine about the prospects of higher inflation.

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Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

Global | Why a new inflation era, not a regime shift, is likely

A shift to a new policy regime with much higher and more volatile inflation is a possibility that can’t be ignored due to its impact on the economy and financial markets. But in our view, if the pandemic triggers lasting effects on the inflation-generation process, a more plausible outcome is a new era of slightly higher inflation within the current central bank inflation targeting regime.

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Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

Global | Why a new inflation era, not a regime shift, is likely

A shift to a new policy regime with much higher and more volatile inflation is a possibility that can’t be ignored due to its impact on the economy and financial markets. But in our view, if the pandemic triggers lasting effects on the inflation-generation process, a more plausible outcome is a new era of slightly higher inflation within the current central bank inflation targeting regime.

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Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

Global | Holding on to our core convictions

Despite a flattening of the yield curve and some position squaring of the socalled reflation trade, we believe our key asset allocation themes are still broadly intact after the Fed’s hawkish tilt last week.

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Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

Global | Holding on to our core convictions

Despite a flattening of the yield curve and some position squaring of the socalled reflation trade, we believe our key asset allocation themes are still broadly intact after the Fed’s hawkish tilt last week.

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Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

Norway | A strong, consumer-led rebound is to be expected

Norway | A strong, consumer-led rebound is to be expected

Hard data indicate a positive start to Q2, and we expect the economy to
strengthen further through the summer. While a relatively slow vaccination
program raises downside risks to activity, Norway is continuing to reopen and Covid cases are falling. A large savings buffer, rising oil prices, and strong
external goods demand should support a strong, consumer-led rebound. 

What you will learn about:

  • Our mainland GDP growth forecast
  • Mobility data is at its pre-pandemic baseline and consumer confidence is now positive
  • Unemployment remains high by Norway’s standards. While recent data suggest that joblessness may be falling faster than expected in Q2

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Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

Norway | A strong, consumer-led rebound is to be expected

Norway | A strong, consumer-led rebound is to be expected

Hard data indicate a positive start to Q2, and we expect the economy to
strengthen further through the summer. While a relatively slow vaccination
program raises downside risks to activity, Norway is continuing to reopen and Covid cases are falling. A large savings buffer, rising oil prices, and strong
external goods demand should support a strong, consumer-led rebound. 

What you will learn about:

  • Our mainland GDP growth forecast
  • Mobility data is at its pre-pandemic baseline and consumer confidence is now positive
  • Unemployment remains high by Norway’s standards. While recent data suggest that joblessness may be falling faster than expected in Q2

Read more

mountain in sunset
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Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

Recovery Tracker falls after setbacks in Brazil and Chile

Research Briefing Latin America

Our Latin America Recovery Tracker (LART) fell slightly (-0.7pts) during the week ending June 18, following two consecutive weekly gains. Setbacks in Brazil and Chile more than offset modest improvements elsewhere.

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Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

Recovery Tracker falls after setbacks in Brazil and Chile

Research Briefing Latin America

Our Latin America Recovery Tracker (LART) fell slightly (-0.7pts) during the week ending June 18, following two consecutive weekly gains. Setbacks in Brazil and Chile more than offset modest improvements elsewhere.

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Research Briefing | Jun 25, 2021

Colombia | The path to monetary policy normalization

Ipad Frame (52)

The Colombian economy is finally showing hints of an inflation build-up, with monthly CPI rising above its seasonal average in both April and May. Headline inflation is now at 3.3% y/y, and base effects alone will most likely bring it close to BanRep’s target of 4% by year-end.

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Research Briefing | Jun 25, 2021

Colombia | The path to monetary policy normalization

Ipad Frame (52)

The Colombian economy is finally showing hints of an inflation build-up, with monthly CPI rising above its seasonal average in both April and May. Headline inflation is now at 3.3% y/y, and base effects alone will most likely bring it close to BanRep’s target of 4% by year-end.

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Research Briefing | Jun 25, 2021

No escape from Myanmar military coup’s economic damage

Ipad Frame (50)

Myanmar’s Feb. 1 military coup, which ousted the newly reelected NDL party over unsubstantiated claims of election fraud, has been deadly in human terms and devastating economically. Our once-positive outlook for this year and the medium term has soured. We now see GDP contracting 13% in FY2020-2021 (ending in September).

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Research Briefing | Jun 25, 2021

No escape from Myanmar military coup’s economic damage

Ipad Frame (50)

Myanmar’s Feb. 1 military coup, which ousted the newly reelected NDL party over unsubstantiated claims of election fraud, has been deadly in human terms and devastating economically. Our once-positive outlook for this year and the medium term has soured. We now see GDP contracting 13% in FY2020-2021 (ending in September).

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Research Briefing | Jun 25, 2021

India | Premature state re-openings could backfire

Ipad Frame (51)

States are starting to relax lockdown measures as the second wave of Covid infections is showing signs of plateauing. As a result, national mobility has improved notably since the start of the month. As of June 18, total mobility (ex-residential) in India stood 22% below the baseline, according to Google data, up from 50% below baseline at the peak of the 2021 lockdown. The turnaround in mobility has been led by states that have witnessed a sharp drop in infections in recent weeks, including Delhi, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh. Other states have also experienced improved mobility as case numbers have declined.

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Research Briefing | Jun 25, 2021

India | Premature state re-openings could backfire

Ipad Frame (51)

States are starting to relax lockdown measures as the second wave of Covid infections is showing signs of plateauing. As a result, national mobility has improved notably since the start of the month. As of June 18, total mobility (ex-residential) in India stood 22% below the baseline, according to Google data, up from 50% below baseline at the peak of the 2021 lockdown. The turnaround in mobility has been led by states that have witnessed a sharp drop in infections in recent weeks, including Delhi, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh. Other states have also experienced improved mobility as case numbers have declined.

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Research Briefing | Jun 24, 2021

Canada | How the climate plan makes progress – but still falls short

How the climate plan makes progress - but still falls short -iPad

Raising Canada’s federal carbon levy to C$170/tonne by 2030 will make solid progress but fall short on the country’s ambitious new pledge to cut emissions 40%-45% by decade’s end. Even so, our analysis shows higher carbon prices will hurt the economy, particularly carbon-intensive sectors and regions.

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Research Briefing | Jun 24, 2021

Canada | How the climate plan makes progress – but still falls short

How the climate plan makes progress - but still falls short -iPad

Raising Canada’s federal carbon levy to C$170/tonne by 2030 will make solid progress but fall short on the country’s ambitious new pledge to cut emissions 40%-45% by decade’s end. Even so, our analysis shows higher carbon prices will hurt the economy, particularly carbon-intensive sectors and regions.

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Research Briefing | Jun 24, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker climbs as Americans get moving again

Recovery Tracker climbs as Americans get moving again - iPad

Our US Recovery Tracker started June with a bang, rising a strong 1.2ppts to 96.1 in the week ended June 11 following a 0.6ppts gain in the week prior. With close to 60% of US adults fully vaccinated, the economy’s ongoing reopening has lifted the tracker to its highest point in the recovery.

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Research Briefing | Jun 24, 2021

US | Recovery Tracker climbs as Americans get moving again

Recovery Tracker climbs as Americans get moving again - iPad

Our US Recovery Tracker started June with a bang, rising a strong 1.2ppts to 96.1 in the week ended June 11 following a 0.6ppts gain in the week prior. With close to 60% of US adults fully vaccinated, the economy’s ongoing reopening has lifted the tracker to its highest point in the recovery.

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Research Briefing | Jun 24, 2021

MENA | Coronavirus tracker for the GCC – June update

Coronavirus tracker for the GCC – June update - iPad

Bahrain locked down again on 27th May after a surge in new Covid-19 cases, despite having one of the world’s highest vaccination rates and the lockdown has been extended until 2nd July at least. Work permits have been suspended for red list countries and mandatory quarantine has been reimposed for unvaccinated travellers. Oman also locked down again on 19th June due to a surge in infections and hospitals running out of capacity, with a night-time curfew (8pm-4am) in place until further notice.

What you will learn:

  • Elsewhere in the region, lockdown restrictions have continued to ease. Kuwait has announced plans to allow vaccinated foreigners in from 1st August, subject to a 7-day quarantine period and other testing requirements.
  • Vaccinated citizens and residents will also be able to gain entry to large shopping malls, gyms, restaurants etc from 27th June. A similar regime has been implemented in Abu Dhabi.
  • Qatar has moved to the second phase of re-opening, with more venues allowed to re-open and with higher capacity, including workplaces.

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Research Briefing | Jun 24, 2021

MENA | Coronavirus tracker for the GCC – June update

Coronavirus tracker for the GCC – June update - iPad

Bahrain locked down again on 27th May after a surge in new Covid-19 cases, despite having one of the world’s highest vaccination rates and the lockdown has been extended until 2nd July at least. Work permits have been suspended for red list countries and mandatory quarantine has been reimposed for unvaccinated travellers. Oman also locked down again on 19th June due to a surge in infections and hospitals running out of capacity, with a night-time curfew (8pm-4am) in place until further notice.

What you will learn:

  • Elsewhere in the region, lockdown restrictions have continued to ease. Kuwait has announced plans to allow vaccinated foreigners in from 1st August, subject to a 7-day quarantine period and other testing requirements.
  • Vaccinated citizens and residents will also be able to gain entry to large shopping malls, gyms, restaurants etc from 27th June. A similar regime has been implemented in Abu Dhabi.
  • Qatar has moved to the second phase of re-opening, with more venues allowed to re-open and with higher capacity, including workplaces.

Read more

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Research Briefing | Jun 24, 2021

US | Inflation will be sticky but not oppressive

Inflation will be sticky but not oppressive - iPad

The US economy is unlikely to experience an inflation regime shift. But after a decade of glacial price rises in the wake of the financial crisis, it will experience a prolonged period of warm inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. That stickiness will initially reflect post-Covid supply and demand imbalances, but from 2022 onward, it’ll reflect sustained economic and labor market strength.

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Research Briefing | Jun 24, 2021

US | Inflation will be sticky but not oppressive

Inflation will be sticky but not oppressive - iPad

The US economy is unlikely to experience an inflation regime shift. But after a decade of glacial price rises in the wake of the financial crisis, it will experience a prolonged period of warm inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. That stickiness will initially reflect post-Covid supply and demand imbalances, but from 2022 onward, it’ll reflect sustained economic and labor market strength.

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Research Briefing | Jun 24, 2021

Australia | The terms of trade are booming, but this time it’s different

Copy of Ipad Frame (32)

Export prices have surged over the past 9 months, driven by record high iron ore prices. This has driven the terms of trade to its highest level since 2011– the height of the mining investment boom. But this terms of trade episode will be very different, and it will not have far-reaching consequences for the structure of the economy as the last boom did.

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Research Briefing | Jun 24, 2021

Australia | The terms of trade are booming, but this time it’s different

Copy of Ipad Frame (32)

Export prices have surged over the past 9 months, driven by record high iron ore prices. This has driven the terms of trade to its highest level since 2011– the height of the mining investment boom. But this terms of trade episode will be very different, and it will not have far-reaching consequences for the structure of the economy as the last boom did.

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Ungated Post|23 June 2021

The National News: Behind the scenes ahead of Expo 2020 Dubai

Scott Livermore
Scott Livermore
Chief Economist & Managing Director
The National News: Behind the scenes ahead of Expo 2020 Dubai

With 100 days to go to the delayed Expo 2020, Scott Livermore, Chief Economist at Oxford Economics discusses the channels through which the Dubai and UAE economy stands to benefit.

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Research Briefing | Jun 23, 2021

Global travel outlook: highlights & risks – June 2021

The first page of Oxford Economics' Research Briefing titled Global travel outlook highlights & risks which is released in June 2021

Successful vaccine rollouts continue to improve the upside potential for global travel following a depressing start to the year. Advanced vaccination rates have increased the possibility for countries to maintain low coronavirus cases, ease domestic restrictions and be able to start a gradual lifting of international restrictions.

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Research Briefing | Jun 23, 2021

Global travel outlook: highlights & risks – June 2021

The first page of Oxford Economics' Research Briefing titled Global travel outlook highlights & risks which is released in June 2021

Successful vaccine rollouts continue to improve the upside potential for global travel following a depressing start to the year. Advanced vaccination rates have increased the possibility for countries to maintain low coronavirus cases, ease domestic restrictions and be able to start a gradual lifting of international restrictions.

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Research Briefing | Jun 22, 2021

Global | Turning cautious on GBP

We believe now is the time to close out our tactical bullish GBP call, initiated in March, as the almost year-long rally in GBP looks increasingly exhausted.

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Research Briefing | Jun 22, 2021

Global | Turning cautious on GBP

We believe now is the time to close out our tactical bullish GBP call, initiated in March, as the almost year-long rally in GBP looks increasingly exhausted.

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A comprehensive study of the economic impact of Southeast Asia’s Agri-food sector in 2019, with deeper analysis into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policy challenges faced by the sector in the years ahead.

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Research Briefing | Jun 22, 2021

UK | Inflation risks rise, but counter forces should prevail

Technical factors will push inflation up in the short-term and the fallout from the pandemic will raise inflation risks further out. But on balance we think a mix of the stronger pound, a persistent output gap, and more fundamental forces point against the UK entering a new era of sustained higher inflation.

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Research Briefing | Jun 22, 2021

UK | Inflation risks rise, but counter forces should prevail

Technical factors will push inflation up in the short-term and the fallout from the pandemic will raise inflation risks further out. But on balance we think a mix of the stronger pound, a persistent output gap, and more fundamental forces point against the UK entering a new era of sustained higher inflation.

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