Research Briefing | Apr 12, 2023

Austin’s growing tech sector expected to avoid layoffs

Austin’s large and expanding tech sector will escape many of the recessionary forces in the second half of 2023. Although we forecast modest job and GDP declines in Q3 and Q4, Austin is forecast to see one of the highest job and GDP growth rates in 2023, Its 2022 job growth rate of 8.7% was double the US growth of 4.3% last year. Restaurants, computer systems design, and wholesale trade led job growth.

What you will learn:

  • Austin’s 2022 GDP growth rate of 7.7% ranks at the top of the 50 largest metros as well. GDP growth was led by information and professional business services. We forecast annual GDP growth of 3% in 2023, which includes a GDP decline of 0.6% in the second half of the year. We forecast 2024-2027 annual GDP growth of 2.4%, above the 50-city forecasted average rate of 1.7%.
  • Austin’s ever expanding tech sector, including Dell, AMD, Google and others, seems to have avoided layoffs thus far. Job growth in 2022 was 12.7% in 2022. Unlike most metros, we forecast flat tech growth through Q1 2024, with no net declines. Further, we forecast job growth of 2.3%, annually, from 2024 to 2027. Tech GDP grew 26.5% in 2022. We forecast decelerating GDP growth of 3.3%, annually, in 2023 through 2027. Home to the state capital and UT Austin, the metro’s state and local government is another large sector. It had job growth of 0.3% in 2022 and is forecasted to grow 0.7% in 2023 through 2027.
  • Austin saw net in-migration of 40,200 in 2022. This contributed to population growth of 2.5% for the year. We forecast cumulative net in-migration of 147,200 from 2023 to 2027 and population growth of 1.8%, above the forecasted US rate of 0.5%.
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