Research Briefing | Aug 27, 2021

Australia | A four-phase migration recovery

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The halving of Australia’s arrival cap in July 2021 will drag on net overseas migration (NOM) in Q3 and Q4 2021, resulting in an estimated outflow of 35,000 people in FY2022. As much as active COVID-19 outbreaks are a setback, they have acted to speed up vaccination delivery, and pulled forward the mindset hurdle of living with the virus that is inherent in the transition to Phase 2.

What you will learn:

  • Quarterly net overseas migration to Australia figures
  • Net overseas migration will dictate the path of population growth for the years to come, with natural increase set to hold relatively stable
  • Analysis on each of the four phases of the migration recovery 
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