A Critical Review of HMG’s Impact Assessment on Shifting to NPM 2018 for Promotion and Advertising Restrictions

Executive summary for the Food and Drink Federation

The UK government is consulting on a proposal to apply the 2018 Nutrient Profile Model to existing regulations governing the promotion and advertising of “less healthy” food and drink products. If implemented, the proposal would significantly expand the range of products subject to these restrictions, with implications for consumers, businesses, and the wider economy.

Oxford Economics has undertaken an independent review of the impact assessment that was published alongside the consultation announcement. Our research finds that the government’s evidence base is often limited with material uncertainties and evidence gaps that have important implications for the overall cost-benefit assessment.

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The experts behind the research

Alex Stewart

Associate Director

Alex Stewart

Associate Director

Alex Stewart joined Oxford Economics in May 2023 having spent the previous seven years at the HM Treasury. At Oxford Economics, Alex’s work has focused on assessing the economic impacts of policy reform and analysis of trends in household finances.
Zara Loughridge

Senior Economist

Zara Loughridge

Senior Economist

Zara joined Oxford Economics' Economic Impact Consulting team in December 2022. Since then, she has led and supported a diverse portfolio of projects, mostly focused on evaluating the economic impacts of policy reform. This has included several high-profile taxation reforms. She has delivered impactful analysis for both private and public sector clients, with experience spanning the UK and international contexts.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Zara spent three years as a UK Government Economist in the Department for Education and the Department for Work and Pensions. There, she developed expertise in policy evaluation, economic modelling (including policy microsimulation), impact assessments, and econometric analysis. She has expertise in effectively communicating analysis to diverse stakeholders, having coordinated across government to inform policy decisions in dynamic and politically sensitive environments.

Zara holds a First Class MA (Hons) in Economics from The University of Edinburgh, where she also worked as an undergraduate teaching assistant in Applied Econometrics. She has since completed training courses in policy evaluation methods and taxation through UCL and the University of Oxford, respectively.
Thomas Alborough

Assistant Economist, Economic Impact

Thomas Alborough

Assistant Economist, Economic Impact

Thomas rejoined Oxford Economics in 2025 as an Assistant Economist, previously he worked in the data team during his placement year and was responsible for handling data for Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model. He holds a BSc in Economics from Loughborough.
Antoine Rannou

Research Assistant, Economic Impact

Antoine Rannou

Research Assistant, Economic Impact

Research Assistant within the Economic Impact Consultancy, currently on a placement year from his BSc Economics degree at the University of Bath. At Oxford Economics, he has contributed to projects through in-depth research, quantitative analysis, and programming in R and Python to support economic modelling.