Navigating Europe’s Trade Future with Confidence

Delivering scenario-based forecasts to help a major European port operator plan resilient infrastructure and respond to geopolitical and economic uncertainty

Details:

Challenge Solution Result

In a shifting economic and geopolitical environment, visibility into future trade flows is essential for long-term port and logistics planning.

One of Europe’s major logistics and port operators plays a critical role in facilitating containerised trade, connecting European supply chains to global markets. Facing pressures from energy market disruptions, structural changes in consumer and industrial demand, and shifting geopolitical alliances, the organisation sought to understand the future shape of trade flows to inform investment decisions, infrastructure development, and capacity planning.

A reliable, forward-looking trade forecast was required to assess potential volume shifts by product, destination, and end-use sector and to ensure infrastructure readiness for an uncertain future.

Details

Find out how we can help you

The Challenge

With increasing energy costs, ongoing supply chain realignments, and geopolitical uncertainty across Europe, the port operator needed greater clarity on long-term trade patterns to support investment planning. Historical trends no longer offered a sufficient basis for future decision-making. Emerging pressures including the realignment of manufacturing hubs, accelerated decarbonisation targets, and evolving import-export balances raised important questions about future container volumes and growth across different commodity types.

The operator needed a robust methodology to distinguish cyclical disruptions from structural changes and translate macroeconomic signals into practical implications for containerised trade.

The Solution

Oxford Economics delivered a comprehensive, data-driven trade and economic outlook to 2035, combining top-down macroeconomic analysis with detailed sectoral and country-level forecasts. The analysis examined three key scenarios including a geopolitical fragmentation case to assess how energy prices, reshoring, and trade flows might evolve under different conditions.

Country-level containerised imports and exports were segmented by sector and final demand category, helping the operator understand where demand would grow, stabilise, or decline. In parallel, the report offered tailored implications for the organisation’s footprint, helping to guide decisions around capacity investment, operational focus, and long-term growth strategy.

The Result

With access to detailed, scenario-based forecasts, the port operator can now make infrastructure decisions with greater clarity and confidence. The analysis provided a clear roadmap for where containerised flows are expected to shift under different macro conditions, enabling the organisation to plan confidently despite economic and political uncertainty.

Sector-specific breakdowns revealed potential growth in capital goods and intermediate product trade, while highlighting headwinds in consumer demand and energy-intensive sectors. This forward-looking insight has empowered the operator to develop infrastructure and capacity strategies that are resilient, adaptive, and grounded in data. The ability to stress-test plans across three plausible futures has further enhanced their decision-making confidence and investment readiness.

Related Services

Trade, Freight and Logistics

Economic insights, modelling, and development advice for the Australian transportation sector.

Find Out More

Australian Consulting Services

Our consulting team develops bespoke solutions to help clients tackle their most important issues. The team applies economic frameworks and our proprietary models to complete more than a hundred projects every year for local and global organisations.

Find Out More