Research Briefing
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week.
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Research Briefing
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week.
Research Briefing
As consumer sentiment deteriorated, concerns about the outlook for consumer spending increased. While there's a statistically significant relationship between sentiment...
Inbound tourism to APAC is poised for continued strong growth, with international travel volumes projected to surpass 2019 levels in...
Research Briefing
The resilience of consumption is essential to support sustained wage-driven inflation and the Bank of Japan's rate hikes. We see...
Research Briefing
On March 4, President Trump placed 25% blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy products that would be...
Research Briefing
A ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia would provide a modest boost to EU economies, mainly due to higher military spending...
Research Briefing
The nominal goods trade deficit was at its widest in January, signaling businesses had front-loaded goods shipments ahead of new...
Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve's policy strategy review is likely to codify what officials are already doing in practice – regular inflation...
Research Briefing
Rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the course of 2025 may not boost growth to the same degree...
Research Briefing
We previously identified four core megatrends – demographics, technology, institutions, and globalisation – as the key drivers shaping the long-term outlook.
Research Briefing
Research Briefing Trade war scenario threatens US travel sector International travel to the US is expected to decline.
Research Briefing
We will revise the forecast for federal employment significantly lower this year, and in subsequent years, because of the announced...
Research Briefing
Prime Minister Sir Kier Starmer has pledged to increase the UK's defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, following...
Research Briefing
First-quarter GDP is tracking weakly at 1% annualized, but we think a lot of the swings in the data are...
Research Briefing
Blanket 10% tariffs on EU exports to the US, now part of our baseline, will have a significant but uneven...
Research Briefing
After a surge of activity during the Covid-19 years, growth in life science-related industries has slowed considerably and we expect...
Research Briefing
For many households, tax refunds represent the biggest cash-flow event of the year. It's early, but we think this will...
Research Briefing
The new US tariffs add an additional layer of drag on Asian manufacturing activities. India will be one of the...
Research Briefing
We think the immediate tariffs on China will have spillovers to some other Asian economies, while the threat of reciprocal...
Research Briefing
We see little evidence that inflation will take a significant turn for the worse, which suggests that the risks of...