Research Briefing
Tariffs typically result in a one-off rise in the level of prices.
Inflation
Are we now stuck in a high inflation world? Temporarily high inflation has lasted for longer than anyone predicted and inflation is set to rise further from here. Might we have actually entered into a new, higher, regime for inflation? Find out more about our GDP inflation forecast.
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 521 results
Research Briefing
A North American trade war unfolded in dramatic fashion this week.
Research Briefing
We previously identified four core megatrends – demographics, technology, institutions, and globalisation – as the key drivers shaping the long-term outlook.
Research Briefing
First-quarter GDP is tracking weakly at 1% annualized, but we think a lot of the swings in the data are...
Research Briefing
We see little evidence that inflation will take a significant turn for the worse, which suggests that the risks of...
Research Briefing
Our updated analysis shows that the risk of 'Japanification' – a lengthy period of low growth and low inflation or...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate by 0.25ppts to 0.5% at Friday's meeting, as we expected. We maintain...
Consulting Report
The EU VAT Gap 2024 report offers an extensive analysis of the value-added tax (VAT) compliance and policy gaps across...
Explore the shifting dynamics of the global economy and the critical challenges shaping growth and inflation in 2025 and beyond....
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.25% at Thursday's meeting, as we expected. We believe that the...
Research Briefing
Since we adopted greater protectionism in our November US forecast, the risks to our baseline have become more balanced. But...
Research Briefing
This Research Briefing presents two scenarios for Ghana’s December 7 general election, based on our assessment of the election manifestos...
Research Briefing
u live in interesting times in US The first release of the November baseline incorporated the election outcome, but in...
Research Briefing
In the second release of the November baseline, we updated our tariff assumptions, but the impact on GDP, inflation, and...
Research Briefing
Oxford Economics' new proprietary business cycle indicator shows that real US construction spending is firmly in a decelerating growth phase.
Research Briefing
Our nowcast suggests October's headline and core PCE inflation will be at their fastest monthly pace in six months and...
Research Briefing
Our sticker-shock model of the 2024 presidential election accurately predicted the winner of nearly all 50 states and the District...
Research Briefing
We expect growth across the Nordic economies to pick up in the near term, with quarterly growth in Sweden and...
Event Global Economic Outlook Conference 2026 Navigating the crosscurrents of economic policy 28 January 2026 London in this page: The...
