High-frequency indicators signal the recovery is stuck in a lull.
- Our US Recovery Tracker fell 0.2ppts to 76.2 in the week ended July 31. Declines in demand, health, and mobility outweighed modest improvements in financial markets, production, and employment. The sugar rush from reopenings has clearly faded, with the tracker having fallen five times in the past eight weeks. It’s evident the economy won’t make further real inroads toward recovery until a medical solution to the pandemic is found.
- Executive orders issued by President Trump earlier this week fall short of providing meaningful support to the economy. The lack of funding for small businesses, state and local governments, and necessary health measures will minimize chances of a sustained rebound in our tracker. Without a substantial fiscal package, the virus will continue to depress economic activity, and significant downside risks will persist.
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