Research Briefing | Apr 4, 2022

UK: Storm clouds continue to gather over the consumer

UK Storm clouds continue to gather over the consumer

An upward revision to the estimate for Q4 2021 took the quarterly UK GDP series to within a whisker of its pre-pandemic level. But the expenditure breakdown suggests the recovery has been very uneven and heavily reliant on the public sector.

What you will learn:

  • Consumer spending was still 1ppt short of its pre-pandemic level in Q4.
  • And though the recent recovery in social consumption should mean most of the lost ground was made up in Q1, the outlook for the rest of 2022 is troubling.
  • In particular, the scope for households to offset the squeeze on real incomes by saving less looks increasingly limited.

Back to Resource Hub

Related services

UK Region and LAD Forecasts


UK Region and LAD Forecasts

Regularly updated data and forecasts for UK regions and local authority districts.

Find Out More
London Big Ben


UK Macro Service

Track, analyse, and react to macro events and future trends in the United Kingdom.

Find Out More