Travel and Tourism: Global Highlights & Risks
Global recovery from the pandemic will be further deferred due to effects from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and we now expect global international arrivals to regain 2019 levels by 2025 instead of by 2024 on average. The largest change is evident in the European travel outlook, with impacts strongly weighted towards Eastern Europe. The conflict will limit travel activity due to three main effects: reduced travel from Russia and Ukraine, including the effects of no-fly zones and airspace closures as well as lingering sanctions; wider economic impacts of sanctions on inflation and disposable income; and sentiment effects due to safety concerns.
What you will learn:
- Globally, domestic travel will continue to lead the recovery in 2022, particularly domestic leisure travel, while international business travel spending will remain way below pre-pandemic highs throughout the near-term.
- The forecasts for North America are little changed on the previous forecast, including a continued pick-up in transatlantic travel (in both directions), albeit with some minor downgrade.
- Recovery in the Middle East is expected to be faster than average – in part thanks to major events being held in 2022 in Qatar and the UAE.
Strong eurozone labour market to moderate next year
The eurozone's labour market has outperformed expectations since the start of the pandemic, but current headwinds to economic growth are mounting and will adversely impact employment into 2023. A mix of domestic reopening tailwinds and looser travel restrictions will support employment growth in the first half of 2022 and helps underpin our GDP forecast for this year.Find Out More
Businesses see tighter policy as the greatest economic risk
Risks to the global economy remain skewed to the downside, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. But businesses no longer see war as the key threat to the economic outlook.Find Out More